Bull case
AI infrastructure demand still looks structural, and the Blackwell ramp is accelerating. Hyperscaler data center capex keeps running through 2025. Consensus revenue may be too conservative, so a beat and raise looks likely. A dominant spot in the CUDA ecosystem gives it high switching costs and real pricing power.
Bear case
Valuation stretched at 38× forward earnings with near-zero margin for guidance miss. Export restriction risk re-escalating on China chip rules. Competitive pressure from AMD and custom silicon (AWS Trainium, Google TPU) starting to compress market share at the margin. Any macro slowdown hits capex budgets first.